Tesco (LSE: TSCO) shares have taken quite a tumble, falling 17% in the last month alone. That’s big for a company many think of as one of the safer picks on the FTSE 100, but we all know the reason. 

In this volatile new world sparked by Donald Trump’s latest round of tariffs, even reliable, cash-generating businesses like Tesco are feeling the squeeze. Over the past year, the shares are now up just 6%, and that gain is fast evaporating.

For bargain hunters, this could be the opportunity they’ve been waiting for. Tesco’s price-to-earnings ratio has dropped to just 11.3. Just a few weeks ago it was trading closer to 15 or 16 times earnings.

Is this FTSE 100 star a bargain?

Meanwhile, the dividend yield has crept back up to 4.28%. Tempting as that may sound, nothing’s without risk in these mad times.

We got an early signal from Kantar on 1 April when it reported that annual sales growth at UK supermarkets had slowed to their weakest pace in 10 months.

There were promotions aplenty as retailers fought for shoppers’ wallets. Despite that, Tesco managed to increase its market share to 27.9% with sales of £9.68bn over the period. By contrast, Asda saw its sales fall 5.6%, so the competitive pressures are real and biting hard.

Tesco’s own update on 10 April was a mixed bag. While 2024 profits rose 10.6% to £3.13bn the board warned things might not be so rosy amid rising “competitive intensity” and the added cost of employer’s National Insurance hikes, Minimum Wage increases, packaging taxes, and more.

Commentators were split. Garry White at Charles Stanley was concerned by warnings that management expects profit will fall in the current year. “Tesco’s guidance could prove to be conservative, but it will be a while before we know”, he said.

Tesco facing margin squeeze

Aarin Chiekrie at Hargreaves Lansdown highlighted Tesco’s strong position and loyal customer base, suggesting that despite a “slight pullback in its share price of late, the underlying story looks good as revenue and profits motor higher”.

Even if the price war intensifies, customers should stay loyal “helped by the Aldi price match and Clubcard prices keeping customers loyal”, Chiekrie added.

The 13 brokers offering one-year share price targets have a median estimate of just under 395p. If that plays out, it would mark a healthy gain of more than 22% from current levels. 

Of the 16 analysts offering ratings, 10 say Strong Buy, three say Buy, and three Hold. Nobody’s calling it a Sell.

Broker predictions can never be relied upon, of course, and most will have been made before Trump lit the tariff fuse. The next year or two could be volatile for just about every stock, and Tesco won’t be exempt. If a recession takes hold, shoppers will feel the pinch and so will Tesco.

Still, with a lower valuation, decent dividend and market leadership, Tesco shares are worth considering today. As ever, investors should aim to hold for a minimal of five years, while hoping the outlook is a little brighter by then.

I always keep a list of shares I would like to own if I could buy them at an attractive price. During the market turbulence in recent weeks, I have bought some of those shares, such as JD Sports and Filtronic. Rolls-Royce (LSE: RR) is also on my list. But the Rolls-Royce share price has not yet fallen to a point where I think it is attractively enough priced to add to my portfolio.

Why not?

Thinking about risks and rewards

All shares offer (or appear to offer) some potential for reward, otherwise investors would not buy them.

But all shares also involve risk. In some cases that is far, far higher than in others. But it is important to remember that even the most stable of shares involves risks.

Rolls-Royce faces risks of external demand shocks

If you do not know what an external demand shock is, the past couple of weeks have provided a very helpful practical demonstration.

A demand shock is when a market for a product or service suddenly encounters less collective demand from would-be customers. That can be because of things it has done itself, such as raising prices or reducing its distribution.

But it can also be because of an external factor. Tariffs are one and they are certainly a risk for Rolls-Royce, given its global footprint.

But there are other potential external demand shocks that I see as risks for both revenues and profits at Rolls-Royce.

Pandemic-era travel restrictions illustrates this perfectly. Demand for civil aviation cratered, driving down demand for aircraft sales and servicing. Rolls-Royce lost lots of money — and its share price was in pennies.

A fundamentally attractive business model

How times change!

The Rolls-Royce share price has soared 471% in the past five years, even when allowing for a 16% correction since the middle of last month.

Fundamentally, I think there is a lot to like about the aircraft engine business. High technical and capital requirements act as barriers to entry, giving manufacturers pricing power. Rolls has a large installed base of engines, helping provide substantial servicing revenues.

It has a strong reputation and is also benefiting from increased defence spending by many governments.

I’m still not ready to buy…

But while those factors make the business attractive to me, I would only want to invest at a price I feel offers me sufficient margin of safety when considering the risks Rolls faces.

The current price-to-earnings ratio of 23 looks high to me, although it partly reflects City expectations of earnings growth.

At a couple of pounds a share, I would be happy with the margin of safety on offer – and quite possibly also at £3 a share if business performance stayed as strong as it has lately.

Currently, though, the Rolls-Royce share price is closer to £7. For now, it will remain on my watchlist but I will not be investing.

With a global trade war having kicked off earlier this month, the US stock market, along with other markets around the world, started crashing.

In the few days following President Trump’s announcement, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq plummeted by over 10%. Meanwhile, looking at the international landscape, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index cratered by almost 12% along with Japan’s Nikkei 225.

The UK and Europe seem to have fared a bit better, with the FTSE 100 only down 6% and the DAX shrinking by 8%, yet that’s still a painful tumble in less than 72 hours.

Since then, shares have started to bounce back as the US reversed course and implemented a 90-day pause on its tariff programme (excluding China). This volatility is obviously gut-wrenching. But could stocks be heading down further in the coming months?

Here’s what the forecasts say

Let’s zoom into where this all started – the US. The latest projections from The Economy Forecast Agency reveal that the S&P 500 could still be on a downward trajectory despite the recent bounceback. In fact, the index could reach as low as 4,434 points by July. If that’s true, then America’s flagship index could see another near-20% clipped off in the coming months.

The timeline certainly seems plausible. July’s the summer earnings season and would reveal the impact of trade disruptions either from the US or other markets like China. So should investors use the recent rally to sell up and buy back into the market in July?

While this may seem wise on paper, in practice, history’s shown countless times that trying to time the market is a losing strategy.

July could indeed be the ‘true’ bottom. But what if the trade war is resolved faster than expected? Then the bottom could be much sooner. Similarly, if negotiations fail, then a protracted trade war could drag stock prices even lower later than July. There’s simply no way of knowing right now.

A better way to invest during volatility

Instead of trying to throw money into the stock market at the lowest point, investors can likely achieve better results if they use ‘dollar cost averaging’.

Take Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ:PANW) as an example. The cybersecurity enterprise has already seen close to 20% of its valuation wiped out since mid-February, even after enjoying a rebound. And with the shares still trading at a lofty price-to-earnings multiple of 87, the stock could continue to tumble from here.

The company manufactures its hardware products in the US. But don’t forget it’s reliant on a global supply chain, including sourcing components from countries like China, which are facing some of the steepest tariffs.

Having said that, cybersecurity isn’t something businesses can really skimp on, even during economic turmoil, giving Palo Alto flexibility to pass on the higher import costs to customers. After all, that’s exactly what management did in the last China trade war in 2018-2019.

Through dollar cost averaging, investors could buy shares today, securing a 20% saving versus a few months ago. Yet if the stock continues to fall, then there’s still capital available to buy more at an even bigger saving, bringing the average cost per share down. It may be worth considering.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) reported its first quarter 2025 earnings results today.

Reported net revenue increased 8% year-over-year to $45.3 billion. Managed net revenue was $46 billion, also up 8%.

Net income was $14.6 billion, up 9% compared to last year, while earnings per share grew 14% to $5.07.

Revenue and earnings beat expectations, sending the stock rising over 1% in premarket hours on Friday.

Net interest income was $23.4 billion, up 1% while non-interest revenue was $22.6 billion, up 17% from last year.

Prior performance

Diageo (LSE: DGE) shares were tumbling long before Donald Trump’s trade war rattled markets, but the uncertainty hasn’t helped one bit. 

Mexican tequila and Canadian whisky exports to the States would both take a beating, if those tariffs come through. The furore couldn’t come at a worse time for the global drinks giant. 

One of the FTSE 100’s proudest blue-chips has taken a right old beating. The Diageo share price is now down nearly 30% over the past year, and a hefty 50% over three.

Can this FTSE 100 flop fight back?

The problems run deep. The cost-of-living crisis has left shoppers reluctant to splash out on premium drinks. 

Diageo’s push into the premium end of the market has stumbled as a result, and stocking issues in key regions, especially Latin America, have only made matters worse. 

I’ve tried to see the brighter side, averaging down on the stock several times, but each time the shares have sunk lower. So has my mood. Well they do say alcohol is a depressant.

Sure, Guinness is the height of fashion but there’s a growing concern that younger generations simply aren’t drinking the way their parents did. 

That casts a long shadow over Diageo’s long-term story. Once seen as a solid, defensive pick, the company now looks anything but dependable.

In February, Diageo reported that net sales had dipped 0.6% to $10.9bn, and operating profit fell 4.9% to $3.16bn, with currency headwinds and shrinking margins both playing a role. 

While there were encouraging signs in North America, boosted by Don Julio and Crown Royal, that’s all up in the air. Tariffs appear to have scuppered hopes of building momentum in the second half of the year.

At least the valuation has come down to earth. Diageo now trades on a price-to-earnings ratio below 15, which feels cheap given where it used to sit. 

Rising yield, but is it good value?

The dividend yield is up to 3.86%, and forecasts suggest it could hit 4% in 2025. So, what might that mean for returns?

The 22 analysts covering the stock have a median one-year target of 2,547p. If they’re right, that’s a potential 24% gain from today’s price of 2,063p. 

Add in the yield, and investors could be looking at a total return of almost 28%. I’d love that to happen, but can’t see it today. Forecasts feel shakier than ever right now.

They say it’s darkest before the dawn, and maybe better days lie ahead. But any investor considering Diageo today must look past the share price slide and ask if they truly believe in the company’s future. The P/E ratio may be lower, but that doesn’t make it cheap.

Of the 25 analysts who’ve issued a rating recently, 10 labelled Diageo a Strong Buy, with another three rating it a Buy. Three said Hold. Only three said Sell. Their glass is half full, but after the losses I’ve suffered, mine feels half empty. I believe investors’ patience could be tested for a long while yet.

Any investor considering this stock must be ready to commit for the long haul, or sit this one out.

Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC) reported its first quarter 2025 earnings results today.

Total revenue decreased 3% year-over-year to $20.15 billion.

Net income grew 6% to $4.89 billion and earnings per share rose 16% to $1.39 compared to last year.

Earnings beat expectations while revenue fell short.

Net interest income decreased 6% while non-interest income was stable. Noninterest expense decreased 3%.

The stock dropped over 4% on Friday following the earnings announcement.

Prior performance

The lesser-known FTSE 250 recruitment company Page Group (LSE: PAGE) is down 26% this year after weak fourth-quarter results hit the stock hard. Growing uncertainty in the UK jobs market has led the firm to suffer its worst start to a year since 2022. Now at 250p a share, it’s worth less than half what it was at the end of 2021.

In its latest results released this Wednesday (9 April), it reported an 11.7% drop in gross profit, down from £220m to £194.2m. The EMEA region was hit the hardest, down 14.5%, with the UK dipping 12.7% and America down 1.1%.

The company noted the unpredictable economic environment that could make 2025 a difficult year. As a result, it didn’t provide any forward-looking guidance at this time. However, it does plan to implement cost savings of £15m by simplifying its management structure and reducing the workforce by 25%.

Page Group’s earnings have been in decline for several years now, slipping from £139m in 2022 to £28.4m last year. While revenue has also dropped, it’s done so at a slower rate, bringing the company’s net margin down to a worrying 1.39%.

Notably, earnings in the US increased 7% due to higher demand in the engineering and manufacturing sectors.

A dividend play?

Page Group has a long history of dividend growth, barring an understandable cut during Covid. Global lockdowns led to an almost complete cessation of recruitment operations during that period.

However, in 2021, dividends were reinstated at 15p per share and have since increased to 17.11p. Overall, its annual dividends have increased at a compound annual growth rate of 5.2% a year. I would expect that growth to continue — unless more lockdowns occur, of course.

After the price dip, the yield’s up to 7%, making the stock an attractive option for income investors. However, if the price keeps falling, it may negate any dividend gains.

What’s the likelihood of that happening? 

Valuation

Along with the falling price, Page Group’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has also dipped by around 25%. However, now at 29.6, it’s still well above the FTSE 100 average of 11.4. At 9.63, its price-to-cash flow (P/CF) ratio is also slightly above average. These metrics indicate that, despite the falling price, the stock could still be somewhat overvalued.

Subsequently, there’s a fair chance the price may dip lower before stabilising or recovering. But analysts remain optimistic in the long term, with the average 12-month forecast 380p — a 44% rise. The current economic situation is dire but will likely stabilise and improve by next year. If the company can maintain its dividends through it all, it could deliver decent value to shareholders in the long run.

However, I’m not convinced enough to consider the stock just yet. Looking at other similar stocks on the FTSE 250, I’d consider price comparison company MONY Group to have better potential. It has a 6.5% yield and a P/E ratio of only 12.45. Specialist manufacturer Morgan Advanced Materials also looks promising, with a 6.6% yield and P/E ratio of 10.5.

Asset management company BlackRock, Inc. (NYSE: BLK) on Friday announced financial results for the first quarter of 2025.

First-quarter adjusted earnings increased 15% year-over-year to $11.30 per share. On an unadjusted basis, net income attributable to shareholders was $1.51 billion or $9.64 per share in Q1, compared to $1.57 billion or $10.48 per share in the prior year period.

Total revenue increased 12% year-over-year to $5.28 billion in the March quarter. The top line benefitted from the positive impact of markets, organic base fee growth, and fees related to the GIP Transaction.

“BlackRock’s positioning and connectivity with clients are stronger than ever, and it’s clear in our results. We delivered 6% organic base fee growth in the first quarter, representing our best start to a year since 2021 and secular strength against a complex market backdrop,” said CEO Laurence Fink.

Prior Performance

The BP (LSE: BP) share price has taken a real beating. In a turbulent time for global markets, the oil giant has been hit harder than most.

BP shares have tumbled 15% in just a week and are down a full 35% over the past 12 months. That’s a bruising run for the FTSE 100 heavyweight. The share price spike during the Putin-fuelled energy shock of 2022 is now a fading memory.

So what’s gone wrong? A lot, actually. Obviously, there’s Donald Trump. His tariff talk has sent oil prices sliding with Brent crude now hovering closer to $60 a barrel. 

Can this FTSE 100 big beast roar again?

That’s bad news for energy giants like BP. While it can break even at around $40 a barrel, falling prices inevitably hit earnings and profits. If trade tensions sink the global economy then energy demand will follow, along with BP shares.

BP has problems of its own. It’s spent the last few years tying itself in knots over its strategy. It swung hard toward green energy, only to backtrack in recent months after coming under heavy pressure from activist investor Elliott, which took a 5% stake and is pushing for a reset.

BP’s chairman Helge Lund – a key backer of the net zero transition – is stepping down. New CEO Murray Auchincloss is scaling back renewables investment and ramping oil and gas spending back up. 

That has left the company under fire from angry climate critics and equally frustrated shareholders alike.

BP’s earnings nosedived even before the latest bout of market chaos, with 2024’s earnings per share down a staggering 97%. As a result, the company’s price-to-earnings ratio has shot up to 186. A few months ago, the P/E was around five or six times and looked a bargain. Today, I’m not so sure.

The recent trading update, published on 11 April, didn’t help. BP said gas and low-carbon energy production is down, with only a slight rise in oil. Gas trading was “weak” while net debt jumped by $4bn in the quarter. While BP expects that to reverse due to seasonal factors, it added to the gloom.

I just hope the dividend holds

Its stellar share buybacks have been trimmed. BP was spending up to $1.75bn a quarter buying back its own shares. Now that’s been cut back to between $750m and $1bn. Rightly so, given falling earnings, but still a blow.

Following the share price slump, BP’s forecast to yield 7.4% in 2025 and 7.72% in 2026. Let’s hope the dividend proves sustainable. A cut can’t be ruled out.

If central banks start slashing interest rates to offset a slowdown, its $23bn debt will get cheaper to service and energy demand could pick up. That might throw BP a lifeline.

I bought BP shares a couple of months ago, taking advantage of the low P/E and improved yield. Obviously, it hasn’t gone well so far. I’m holding, but this is a highly risky stock today. In fact, it has been ever since the Deepwater Horizon blow-out in 2010, some 15 years ago now.

Bargain hunters considering the stock should approach with extreme caution. There’s an awful lot going on here, and we don’t know how it will pan out. Or even if it’s a bargain!

Recovering from the softness experienced in the early weeks of the year, IPO activity is gaining strength led by the healthcare and technology industries. Circle Internet Group is the latest tech firm to file documents with the Securities and Exchange Commission for an initial public offering. It is a financial technology company focused on building digital currency infrastructure, primarily through its stablecoin.

The company has applied to list its stock on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol CRCL. Meanwhile, the exact number of shares being offered and the offer price are yet to be revealed. The team of underwriters in the offering is led by JPMorgan and Citigroup.

Proceeds

The company said it plans to use proceeds from the offering for investment in new products and capabilities; investment in expanding awareness, usage, and distribution of its products, and strategic acquisitions. The remainder of the proceeds will be used for working capital and other general corporate purposes.

As per documents submitted with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Circle Internet reported mixed results for fiscal 2024. Revenues and reserve income from continuing operations increased to $1.68 billion in FY24 from $1.45 billion in the prior year. Meanwhile, full-year net income decreased to $155.7 million or $0.30 per share from $267.6 million or $0.78 per share in FY23. Adjusted EBITDA was $285 million in 2024, down from $395 million in 2023, but higher than the $96 million in 2022.

The Company

Circle Internet was founded in 2013 by Jeremy Allaire and Patrick Sean Neville. It operates as a peer-to-peer payments technology company specialized in managing the stablecoin USDC, a cryptocurrency pegged to the US dollar. It is estimated that as of December 31, 2024, USDC has been used for approximately $20.0 trillion in on-chain transactions.

A few years ago, Circle Internet entered into a merger agreement with a special purpose acquisition company to enter the public markets, but the business combination was mutually terminated later, and the company recorded around $44 million in merger termination costs.

The unique business model, focused on disrupting the payments space through its products differentiates Circle Internet from other fintech companies. However, crypto-related regulatory uncertainties and growing competition in that area raise concerns about its prospects.