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Verizon’s new plan: Consumers win, investors lose

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Inside Verizon's device testing lab

Verizon has brought back its unlimited data plan. That’s great if you’re a Verizon customer. But it is terrible news for its investors.

Verizon (VZ) stock fell nearly 1.5% in early trading Monday. It’s now down about 10% so far this year, making it the Dow’s worst performer of 2017.

Verizon’s move is a clear sign the company has to pull out all the stops to remain competitive with wireless rivals AT&T (T), Sprint (S) and T-Mobile (TMUS).

“In recent months, both T-Mobile and Sprint had some success taking additional share from Verizon by virtue of their unlimited offerings,” wrote Morgan Stanley analysts in a report Monday morning.

That may explain why shares of T-Mobile and Sprint, which is now controlled by Japanese tech conglomerate SoftBank, are both up this year while Verizon is down. T-Mobile and Sprint have also been perennially linked as possible merger partners.

But the new telecom price war isn’t the only problem for Verizon.

AT&T recently acquired satellite broadcast provider DirecTV, a move that makes Ma Bell more competitive against Verizon in the battle to control people’s living rooms. Verizon offers its own FiOS broadband TV service.

Related: Verizon brings back unlimited data plans

And AT&T is also making a much bigger bet on content, with plans to purchase CNN’s parent company Time Warner (TWX). Verizon already owns AOL and is looking to buy the core assets of Yahoo to bolster its own digital content offerings.

But the Yahoo (YHOO) deal could fall apart in the wake of revelations of massive data breaches at Yahoo over the past few years.

Yahoo recently said it hopes that the deal with Verizon will close in the second quarter of this year. It was originally supposed to be finalized by the first quarter.

However, in its latest earnings release, Verizon simply said that it “continues to work with Yahoo to assess the impact of data breaches” — not that it expected the deal to close anytime soon.

Verizon has a lot on its plate, which could be making investors nervous. In addition to the Yahoo deal, the company is also in the process of buying the fiber optic network of XO Communications. And it’s selling its data center business to Equinix (EQIX).

There also have been rumors in the past few weeks that Verizon might even consider buying cable provider Charter Communications (CHTR).

That may be more than Verizon can realistically handle right now. But nothing may be off the table for Verizon given how competitive the wireless world is these days.

Anything that could give Verizon a leg up on AT&T, Sprint and T-Mobile might be possible.

Related: Charter shares popped on report of possible Verizon takeover

Still, it’s worth noting that shares of AT&T are lower this year too, down about 5%. And Verizon and A&T have something in common that Sprint and T-Mobile lack — Verizon and AT&T pay gigantic dividends.

Companies that have big dividend yields haven’t fared as well since Donald Trump was elected. Investors are betting on a sizable stimulus package from him and the Republican Congress, which may be fueled in part by debt.

That’s caused bond yields to rise — and that makes shares of big dividend payers like Verizon a lot less attractive.

The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates a few times this year too. That could push bond yields even higher.

So Verizon faces many big challenges that could hurt its stock this year.

That’s why Verizon, nicknamed Big Red because of its logo’s crimson hue, may see its stock in the red for the foreseeable future.

CNNMoney (New York) First published February 13, 2017: 11:27 AM ET

Corporate America, not banks, could cause the next recession

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The collapse of Lehman Brothers: 10 years later

1. The next debt crisis: There’s a $6.3 trillion elephant in the room. And it just might cause the next recession.

The last downturn was triggered by Wall Street and Americans accumulating too much debt — particularly in the sizzling housing market.

A decade later, it’s Corporate America borrowing with gusto. Egged on by extremely low rates, US companies have piled on a record-setting $6.3 trillion of debt, according to S&P Global Ratings.

All that debt is easy to ignore right now. Default rates are minuscule. Companies are sitting on tons of cash, and their coffers are growing thanks to the soaring US economy and corporate tax cuts.

But eventually, both the economy and corporate profits will slow, leaving companies less firepower to pay down debt. And it won’t be as easy to roll over the debt that’s due. Debt-laden companies would be vulnerable to rising borrowing costs caused by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes.

If companies are stuck in a credit crunch, they will have to pull back on hiring and investment. That could be a recipe for a recession.

“Corporates, not consumers or banks, will cause [the] next recession,” Michael Hartnett, Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s chief investment strategist, wrote to clients on Thursday.

Corporate America’s debt binge has helped finance the recovery. Companies have borrowed to open factories, buy equipment and develop products. A chunk of that debt has also gone to reward Wall Street with massive stock buybacks.

After a decade of low rates, companies have taken on more debt relative to the size of the economy than ever before. Total US business debt as a percentage of GDP is at a record high, according to David Ader of Informa Financial Intelligence.

The riskiest category of borrowers has never been more leveraged. Companies with junk credit ratings are holding a record low $8 of debt for every $1 of cash, according to S&P.

gfx corporate debt bubble

And then there are so-called zombie companies — which can’t even afford interest payments, despite the strong economy and low rates.

Ben Breitholtz, data scientist at Bianco Research, found that 14% of the companies in the S&P 1500 don’t have enough earnings before interest and taxes to cover interest expenses. That’s above the world average of 10%.

Those zombie companies are probably cringing as central bankers slowly end the easy-money days. The Fed is expected to lift rates on Wednesday, the eighth hike since late 2015. Four more moves before the end of 2019 may be in the cards.

At the same time, the Fed is trimming its $4.5 trillion balance sheet — an experiment that could contribute to higher borrowing costs as foreign central banks follow suit and unload bonds.

feds massive balance sheet shrinking chart

Bank of America’s Hartnett warned that an “aggressive” Fed in 2019 could trigger a “credit crunch” — not just in emerging markets, but in Corporate America.

2. Trade war: The US-China confrontation will escalate on Monday when the United States imposes tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods. On the same day, China has pledged to retaliate with a tariff on $60 billion of American goods.

The trade war is causing problems for Walmart, Procter & Gamble and a host of other companies that sell products imported from China or depend on Chinese goods in their supply chains.

3. Nike earnings: What do Nike executives have to say about the response to their Colin Kaepernick ad campaign? We’ll find out Tuesday, when the company reports earnings.

Nike has had a good year: US sales are growing, and the stock is up 35%.

4. Economy watch: The US government on Thursday will give the final reading on economic growth in the second quarter. The previous revision showed a strong growth rate of 4.2%.

5. Coming this week:

Monday — US imposes tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods; MacOS Mojave launches

TuesdayKB Home (KBH) and Nike (NKE) earnings; US consumer confidence

Wednesday — Bed Bath & Beyond and Carmax earnings; Federal Reserve interest rate decision; US new home sales for August

Thursday — Rite Aid, Carnival and Accenture earnings; final revision of US second-quarter GDP

Friday — End of Q3

CNNMoney (New York) First published September 23, 2018: 7:40 AM ET

America’s NAFTA nemesis: Canada, not Mexico

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NAFTA explained

America and Canada have one of the world’s biggest trade relationships.

President Donald Trump met for the first time Monday with Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

“We have a very outstanding trade relationship with Canada,” Trump said at the news conference.

But the U.S.-Canada trade relationship over the years has not been as smooth as you might think. There have been trade wars, acts of retaliation, allegations of dumping and jobs lost.

“Our trading relationship obviously is strong…but the relationship has been rocky, despite the agreements we have in place,” says Stuart Trew, an editor at the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, a research group in Ottawa, Canada’s capital.

Trump has often slammed Mexico and NAFTA, the trade agreement between the U.S., Mexico and Canada. But Canada is rarely mentioned.

Yet, there have been more NAFTA dispute claims against Canada — almost all by U.S. companies — than against Mexico. Even today, Canada has stiff tariffs against the United States and the two sides only recently resolved a bitter dispute over meat.

Most leaders and experts stress that trade ties between the two nations are strong and mostly positive. But Canada and America have had plenty of battles along the way.

Now Trump wants to renegotiate NAFTA, which will be on the top of the agenda for his meeting with Trudeau.

1. Canada gets in more NAFTA trouble than Mexico

Listening to Trump, you might think Mexico is the bad actor of NAFTA. But since NAFTA’s inception in 1994, there have been 39 complaints brought against Canada, almost all by U.S. companies. Known in the industry as the investor state dispute settlements, it allows companies to resolve cases under a special panel of NAFTA judges instead of local courts in Mexico, Canada, or the U.S.

There’s only been 23 complaints against Mexico. (By comparison, companies from both Mexico and Canada have filed a total of 21 complaints against the U.S.)

And increasingly, Canada is the target of American complaints. Since 2005, Canada has been hit with 70% of the NAFTA dispute claims, according to CCPA, a Canadian research firm.

2. The U.S. – Canada lumber battle

NAFTA isn’t the only sore area. In 2002, the U.S. slapped a roughly 30% tariff on Canadian lumber, alleging that Canada was “dumping” its wood on the U.S. market. Canada rejected the claim and argued the tariff cost its lumber companies 30,000 jobs.

“It was a very sour point in Canadian – American relations for quite a while,” says Tom Velk, an economics professor at McGill University in Montreal.

The dispute had its origins in the 1980s, when American lumber companies said their Canadian counterparts weren’t playing fair.

Whether Canada actually broke the rules is a matter of dispute.

Canadian officials deny that the government is subsidizing softwood lumber companies in Canada. American lumber companies still allege that it does, and a U.S. Commerce Department report found that Canada was providing subsidies to lumber companies in 2004. It didn’t say whether the subsidies were ongoing.

According to the allegations, Canada subsidized lumber companies because the government owns many of the lands where the wood comes from. That subsidy — on top of Canada’s huge lumber supply — allowed Canada to price its lumber below what U.S. companies can charge.

The World Trade Organization ultimately sided with Canada, denying America’s claim and the two sides came to an agreement in 2006 to end the tariff.

However, that agreement and its ensuing grace period expired in October, and the two sides are back at it again. The Obama and Trudeau administrations couldn’t reach a compromise before Obama left office and it remains a contentious trade issue with U.S. lumber companies calling once again for tariffs.

Related: ‘Without NAFTA’ we’d be out of business

3. Smoot-Hawley triggers U.S. – Canada trade war

Things got even worse during the Great Depression. In 1930, Congress wanted to protect U.S. jobs from global trade. So the U.S. slapped tariffs on all countries that shipped goods to America in an effort to shield workers.

It was called the Smoot-Hawley Act. Today, it is widely accepted that this law made the Great Depression worse than it was.

Canada was furious, and retaliated more than any other country against the U.S., sparking a trade war.

“Canada was so incensed that…they raised their own tariff on certain products to match the new U.S. tariff,” according to Doug Irwin, a Dartmouth Professor and author of “Peddling Protectionism: Smoot-Hawley and the Great Depression.”

For example, the U.S. increased a tariff on eggs from 8 cents to 10 cents (these are 1930s prices, after all). Canada retaliated by also increasing its tariff from 3 cents to 10 cents — a threefold increase.

Exports dwindled sharply: in 1929, the U.S. exported nearly 920,000 eggs to Canada. Three years later, it only shipped about 14,000 eggs, according to Irwin.

Related: Remember Smoot-Hawley: America’s last major trade war

4. Canada’s sky high tariffs on U.S. eggs, poultry, milk

Fast forward to today. Smoot-Hawley is long gone, but Canada continues to charge steep tariffs on U.S. imports of eggs, chicken and milk.

For instance, some tariffs on eggs are as high as 238% per dozen, according to Canada’s Agriculture Department. Some milk imports, depending on the fat content, are as high as 292%.

“They’re so onerous that you can’t bring it across. There’s no American eggs in Quebec,” says Velk.

According to Canada’s Embassy in the U.S., reality is much different. Its officials say that despite some stiff tariffs, Canada is one of the top export markets for American milk, poultry and eggs.

The U.S. does have tariffs on some goods coming from all countries, but they are not nearly as high as Canada’s.

Experts say these tariffs continue to irk some U.S. dairy and poultry farmers, some of whom are challenged to sell into the Canadian market. But they doubt much will change since the tariffs have been in place for decades now.

Related: Those Reagan tariffs Trump loves to talk about

5. COOLer heads and the future of NAFTA

Despite all these disputes, experts stress this trade relationship is still one of the best in the world.

In fact, the two countries are so interconnected now, when trade disputes erupt sometimes American companies will side with Canadian companies and against U.S. lawmakers.

For example, Canadian meat producers disputed a U.S. law that required them to label where the cattle was born, raised and slaughtered. Canadians said the law discriminated against its meat from being sold in the U.S. and took the case to the WTO.

The WTO sided with Canada, and last December, Congress repealed the country-of-origin-labeling law. American meat producers — whose business is intertwined with Canada — actually supported their counterparts in Canada, arguing the regulation was too burdensome.

As for Trump’s proposal of tearing up NAFTA, many American and Canadian experts say that it’s not worth it to renegotiate or end the agreement. The three countries that are part of the agreement are so enmeshed with each other that untangling all that integration would be detrimental to trade and economic growth.

–Editor’s note: This story was originally published on August 11, 2016. We have since updated it.

CNNMoney (New York) First published February 13, 2017: 11:11 AM ET

Rates are rising but investors still don’t fear the Fed or inflation

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Trump 'not happy' with Fed for raising interest rates

Bond yields in the United States have been rising.

But investors aren’t freaking out. The Dow and S&P 500 both hit all-time highs last week — and the Nasdaq is not far from a record, either.

The 10-Year Treasury yield is still relatively low, but it has topped the psychologically important 3% threshold and is currently hovering around 3.1%.

The concern is that this may be just the beginning. Longer-term rates could keep climbing given that the Federal Reserve is expected to raise short-term rates Wednesday.

At some point, investors may start to grow wary of what rising rates will mean for consumer spending and businesses looking to borrow more money. Higher rates, in theory, should lead to slower growth for both the economy and corporate earnings.

The question is: how many more rate hikes are coming? Fed chair Jerome Powell may provide some clues at a press conference after the Fed decision is announced.

Craig Birk, chief investment officer of Personal Capital, said that the market should be able to handle a few more quarter-point rate increases. But many investors may have gotten spoiled since rates were unusually low for so long.

The federal funds rate is now in a range of 1.75% to 2% and there are expectations it could climb above 3% over the next year. Birk said many investors are hoping the Fed will end its rate hiking campaign in 2019 though.

“We finally have a real interest rate, not one that’s just zero,” Birk said. “The Fed is still saying that they will likely raise rates slowly and steadily but the market seems to be betting they will stop sooner.”

Birk added the Fed had been run by so-called doves, people like former Fed chairs Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen who preferred to keep rates low, for years. Investors are trying to adjust to the new mindset at the Fed.

“The market is still getting used to the idea that the Fed will be more balanced and more hawkish,” Birk said.

In other words, investors may be underestimating the willingness of the Fed to keep raising rates — despite criticism from President Donald Trump about rate hikes and even if the data doesn’t conclusively show inflation picking up in a meaningful way.

Who is Jerome Powell?

Still, some experts think the Fed is likely to stick to its path of gradual rate increases. Powell, like his predecessors, is probably not interested in rattling the bond and stock markets with surprise moves.

“We do not see rising interest rates as a reason to sell stocks, particularly in the absence of runaway inflation,” wrote John Lynch, chief investment strategist for LPL Financial, in a report Tuesday.

Inflation is still under control for now

Wage growth is picking up, but that hasn’t led to a big spike in consumer prices. So the Fed may still have some wiggle room to keep raising rates since the economy appears to be on solid footing.

“The market is interpreting higher rates as a response to better growth, not as a reason to fear a policy mistake, which we find encouraging,” Lynch added.

Ed Keon, chief investment strategist at QMA, isn’t overly worried about inflation getting out of control either.

“It’s premature to say the Fed is behind the curve,” said Keon. “The question is what happens next year and 2020. There are some reasons to believe price pressures may continue to build. I don’t think rates will get too high.”

Keon thinks the 10-Year Treasury yield could climb to a range of about 3.25% to 3.5%. That’s still low enough to keep the economy humming along at a relatively solid clip, even if growth slows a bit.

So the biggest change that might come from the Fed’s rate hikes is a shift in the types of stocks that investors favor most. Tech stocks, retailers and other consumer companies, big winners of the past year, may start to lose some ground to financials.

Yousef Abbasi, global market strategist with INTL FCStone, is bullish on regional bank stocks (KRE) and Bank of America (BAC), which has a big mortgage business. They should benefit from higher rates since it will make their lending operations more profitable.

CNNMoney (New York) First published September 25, 2018: 11:48 AM ET

Apple stock nears record high

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Apple looks to manufacture in India

Apple has found its groove again.

The iPhone maker’s stock hit $133.82 in early trading Monday, putting Apple less than $1 away from its intraday trading high of $134.54, reached in April 2015. Apple’s stock ended the day at $133.29, beating its previous record closing price of $133, set in February 2015.

The stock surge, pushing Apple (AAPL) to a $700 billion market cap, comes amid renewed optimism for the iPhone.

Goldman Sachs raised its price target for the stock on Monday, citing the likelihood of “major new features” like “3D sensing” being added to the next iPhone model, according to an investor note provided to CNNMoney.

Apple’s previous high was set six months after it released the redesigned iPhone 6 and 6 Plus, kicking off what CEO Tim Cook described as the “mother of all upgrades.”

Since then, however, Apple has bucked its tradition of overhauling the iPhone every other year. The newest models on the market today look nearly identical to the iPhones available in late 2014.

The long wait, combined with this year marking the iPhone’s tenth anniversary, has only raised expectations that Apple is about to significantly overhaul its smartphone and reignite demand.

Related: Tim Cook: ‘Apple would not exist without immigration’

Apple’s annual sales fell in the 2016 fiscal year for the first time since 2001 as iPhone sales, still the majority of its business, declined in three consecutive quarters.

Apple even cut its CEO’s pay by 15% due to the company’s failure to meet its performance goals for both sales and profits.

But that losing streak just ended.

Apple sales started growing again in the December quarter, driven by stronger demand for the iPhone — particularly for the larger and more expensive iPhone 7 Plus.

The company sold 78.3 million iPhones for the quarter, setting a new record. At least some of that may be due to the Samsung’s smartphone recall woes.

Mark Moskowitz, an analyst with William Blair, wrote in an investor note this month, “Samsung’s Note 7 struggles likely helped.”

The iPhone isn’t the only reason Wall Street is excited about Apple. There’s also President Trump.

Despite Trump clashing with Apple during the campaign, investors are now optimistic Apple will benefit from at least one Trump proposal: cutting taxes on cash that U.S. businesses bring back from their overseas accounts.

Apple currently has $230 billion in cash held in foreign accounts. If Trump and Congress make it cheaper for Apple to bring that money back, it could be used for acquisitions and buybacks.

CNNMoney (New York) First published February 13, 2017: 12:24 PM ET

GE is worth less than $100 billion for the first time since the Great Recession

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GE changed our lives. Why was it kicked out of the Dow?

General Electric, once America’s most valuable company, is now in sharp decline.

In a year full of dubious landmarks, GE has encountered another: The storied conglomerate is now worth less than $100 billion. That hasn’t happened since March 2009 — during the Great Recession.

GE’s (GE) stock crash — down by nearly two-thirds since the end of 2016 — has knocked the company down to the 59th most valuable in the S&P 500.

It’s a stunning reversal. GE was No. 1 in the S&P 500 as recently as 2004, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. At the time, it was worth nearly $400 billion. Now GE is worth just a tenth of Apple (AAPL), the $1 trillion top dog of the market, and it’s fallen behind Salesforce (CRM), PayPal (PYPL) and Nvidia (NVDA).

GE’s struggles got it kicked out of the Dow Jones Industrial Average this summer. GE was an original member of the exclusive index in 1896 and had been in it continuously for 110 years.

Plunging profits and mounting debt have driven GE’s shares down by 35% this year. Only four S&P 500 companies have had a worse 2018.

The most remarkable part about GE’s decline is it comes at a time when the American economy and stock market are soaring. Rival industrial companies including Honeywell (HON) and United Technologies (UTX) are booming.

But GE has been hobbled by years of poorly timed deals and needless complexity that have finally come home to roost. To pay off debt and jump-start the stock, GE is selling off countless businesses, including its century-old railroad division, Thomas Edison’s light-bulb unit, Baker Hughes and the health-care unit that makes MRI machines.

Selling in GE’s stock has accelerated in recent days because of worries about GE Power, the most troubled part of the slumping conglomerate. GE confirmed last week that two of its gas turbines failed, forcing the closure of power plants.

The turbine trouble could hurt the company’s reputation and sales at a time when it’s already strapped for cash.

In a statement, GE said that it has “identified a fix” and has been working with customers to “quickly return units to service.”

JPMorgan Chase analyst C. Stephen Tusa, Jr, Wall Street’s biggest GE bear, told clients the turbine failure “raises red flags” about GE Power.

Others think that shareholders are overreacting. Most likely, GE’s “fundamental technology is sound” and repair costs will be “manageable,” Bank of America analyst Andrew Obin wrote to clients.

CNNMoney (New York) First published September 26, 2018: 10:32 AM ET

Stocks hit record again. But is Trump the reason?

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What does a Trump presidency mean for the Fed?

The Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 each hit new all-time highs Monday.

Investors are giddy with excitement and they clearly believe that both big blue chip multinationals and smaller companies that do most of their business in the U.S. will continue to thrive.

So is this the Donald Trump rally? Or the Janet Yellen rally?

Some strategists believe Trump’s stimulus plans and talk of killing many burdensome regulations are the reasons stocks are soaring.

Or perhaps this is better characterized as a continuation of the Barack Obama rally instead?

You could argue that POTUS 44 has dealt POTUS 45 a pretty good hand.

The solid job market and overall economy that Trump inherited may be the reason consumers and businesses are so confident.

But investors (and financial journalists) are often quick to give the president more credit — and blame — than they probably deserve for the performance of the stock market.

RBC strategist Jonathan Golub pointed this out in a report on Monday, one that was aptly titled “Message to Market: It’s Not All About Donald.”

Related: Trump isn’t killing the bull market

Golub noted that the S&P 500 rose nearly 7% from late June through Election Day — a time when most polls were predicting that Hillary Clinton would be the next president.

But stocks have continued to rally since then, rising another 8% since Trump pulled off the upset (at least to the mainstream media and Wall Street) victory.

You can’t have it both ways. It makes no logical sense to suggest that stocks rallied because investors believed Trump would lose and that they continued to rally because Trump didn’t lose.

Bond yields have also been rising since Trump won, a phenomenon that many investors have attributed to the likelihood of stimulus from the president and Republican Congress.

Yet Golub points out that the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury was going up during the late summer as well.

Of course, many investors were expecting stimulus from Clinton too.

Yet once again, many investors are claiming that Trump is the catalyst for something that not only was going on before he was elected, but was happening because many thought he would lose.

Related: Stocks have avoided a 1% dive for an unusually long period of time

So it’s odd that Trump is being cited as the main reason for a market rally that began months before anyone felt he could win.

What’s really going on? The one constant during the past few months is the Federal Reserve.

Yes. the markets are reacting to Washington. But they are paying closer attention to Janet Yellen, not the White House.

The Fed made it crystal clear before the election that it would probably raise interest rates in December and do so a few more times in 2017 regardless of who won the race for president.

The good news for investors is that the U.S. economy seems to be growing steadily, but does not appear to be at risk of overheating.

Related: Here’s why the world’s largest money manager is worried

The most recent jobs report showed that wages grew at a decent rate of 2.5% annually. But that’s not nearly high enough to spark fears of runaway inflation and lead the Fed to aggressively raise rates.

Even if Yellen and the Fed hike rates three times this year, they are likely to do so by just a quarter point every time. That would push the Fed’s key short-term rate to a range of 1.25% to 1.5%.

That’s still extremely low. At those levels, stocks would still be more attractive than bonds. Corporate earnings should be able to keep rising at a healthy clip. And consumers would probably keep spending.

So investors would be wise to keep a close eye on Yellen and not just have a myopic focus on the president,

With that in mind, Yellen is set to testify in front of Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. And what she says about the timing and magnitude of future rate hikes could wind up keeping the rally going full steam ahead — or stopping it dead in its tracks.

CNNMoney (New York) First published February 13, 2017: 12:30 PM ET

CEOs are cashing in on the market boom

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Will stocks keep climbing in 2019?

CEOs are using the market boom to quietly cash in their own chips.

Insiders at US companies have dumped $5.7 billion of stock this month, the highest in any September over the past decade, according to an analysis of regulatory filings by TrimTabs Investment Research.

It’s not a new trend. Insiders, which include corporate officers and directors, sold shares in August at the fastest pace in 10 years as well, TrimTabs said.

The selling is noteworthy because it occurred as the market rebounded sharply from an early 2018 tumble. Fueled by tax cuts and a strong economy, the Dow recently notched its first record high since January.

Some corporate insiders have much of their net worth tied up in stock, so it could be that they are simply exercising caution. The bull market, already the longest history, can’t last forever.

“It’s a very prudent thing for them to unload some shares — no matter how much they like the stock,” said Joe Saluzzi, co-partner at brokerage firm Themis Trading. “It doesn’t necessarily mean they see something wrong.”

TrimTabs does not break down how many of the insider sales were pre-planned. The SEC allows executives to schedule stock sales ahead of time to avoid the appearance of insider trading.

While the captains of Corporate America are cashing out, they are doing the exact opposite with shareholder money.

US public companies have authorized a stunning $827.4 billion of stock buybacks in 2018 — already a record for any year, according to TrimTabs. Apple (AAPL) alone announced plans last quarter for $100 billion of buybacks.

The flurry of buybacks has been viewed by investors as a sign of confidence among CEOs.

“Insiders aren’t announcing buybacks because they think stocks are cheap,” said David Santschi, director of liquidity research at TrimTabs. “What they’re doing with shareholders’ money and their own is quite different.”

Companies use buybacks as a way to return excess cash to shareholders. Share repurchases benefit investors — and executives that are paid mostly in stock — by providing persistent demand that tends to boost prices. Buybacks also artificially inflate earnings per share by eliminating the number of shares outstanding.

Corporate America is enjoying record profitability thanks to the strong economy and a big reduction in what they owe Uncle Sam. The Republican tax law reduced the corporate tax rate to 21% from 35% and also gave companies a break on foreign profits that are returned to the United States.

The tax windfall has also enabled companies to spend more on job-creating investments like new equipment and research projects. But buybacks are growing even faster. In fact, Goldman Sachs found that buybacks are garnering the largest share of cash spending by S&P 500 companies for the first time in a decade.

chart buybacks capital spending

Given the spike in buybacks, Saluzzi said it would be odd if insiders are rapidly dumping shares outside of preplanned transactions.

“You’ve got to raise your eyebrows and look at what’s going on here,” Saluzzi said.

CNNMoney (New York) First published September 26, 2018: 12:42 PM ET

Mexico ready to retaliate by hurting American corn farmers

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Anti-Trump protests take place across Mexico

Mexico is ready to hit the U.S. where it hurts: Corn.

Mexico is one of the top buyers of American corn in the world today. And Mexican senator Armando Rios Piter, who leads a congressional committee on foreign relations, says he will introduce a bill this week where Mexico will buy corn from Brazil and Argentina instead of the United States.

It’s one of the first signs of potential concrete action from Mexico in response to President Trump’s threats against the country.

“I’m going to send a bill for the corn that we are buying in the Midwest and…change to Brazil or Argentina,” Rios Piter, 43, told told CNN’s Leyla Santiago on Sunday at an anti-Trump protest in Mexico City.

He added: It’s a “good way to tell them that this hostile relationship has consequences, hope that it changes.”

American corn goes into a lot of the country’s food. In Mexico City, from fine dining restaurants to taco stands on the street, corn-based favorites like tacos can be found everywhere.

Related: Mexican farmer’s daughter: NAFTA destroyed us

America is also the world’s largest producer and exporter of corn. American corn shipments to Mexico have catapulted since NAFTA, a free trade deal signed between Mexico, America and Canada.

American farmers sent $2.4 billion of corn to Mexico in 2015, the most recent year of available data. In 1995, the year after NAFTA became law, corn exports to Mexico were a mere $391 million.

Experts say such a bill would be very costly to U.S. farmers.

“If we do indeed see a trade war where Mexico starts buying from Brazil…we’re going to see it affect the corn market and ripple out to the rest of the ag economy,” says Darin Newsom, senior analyst at DTN, an agricultural management firm.

Rios Piter’s bill is another sign of Mexico’s willingness to respond to Trump’s threats. Trump wants to make Mexico pay for a wall on the border, and he’s threatened taxes on Mexican imports ranging from 20% to 35%.

Trump also wants to renegotiate NAFTA. He blames it for a flood of manufacturing jobs to Mexico. A nonpartisan congressional research report found that not to be true.

Related: Mexico doubles down on Trump ‘contingency plan’

Still, Trump says he wants a better trade deal for the American worker — though he hasn’t said what a better deal looks like.

All sides signaled two weeks ago that negotiations would begin in May after a 90-day consultation period.

But Trump says if negotiations don’t bear the deal he wants, he threatens to withdraw from NAFTA.

Such tough talk isn’t received well by Mexican leaders like Rios Piter. He’s not alone. Mexico’s economy minister, Ildefonso Guajardo, said in January Mexico would respond “immediately” to any tariffs from Trump.

“It’s very clear that we have to be prepared to immediately be able to neutralize the impact of a measure of that nature,” Guajardo said Jan. 13 on a Mexican news show.

–Shasta Darlington contributed reporting to this story

CNNMoney (Mexico City) First published February 13, 2017: 12:06 PM ET

The next big test for Elon Musk arrives this week

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Editor’s Note: This story originally published on September 30, 2018.


New York
CNN Business
 — 

1. Back to business: The SEC is off Elon Musk’s back. Now he and Tesla can return to that other pesky problem — making and selling cars.

Tesla will turn in a critical production report on Tuesday that will show investors whether the company can sustain and surpass its long-promised target of building 5,000 Model 3s per week.

That report will go a long way toward determining whether Tesla (TSLA) can fulfill Musk’s pledge to turn a profit in the third and fourth quarters.

Since it went public, Tesla has recorded only two quarters in the black. It posted the largest loss in its history in the second quarter as it cranked up production to clear the 5,000 bar in the last week of June.

That seems like a long time ago. In early August, Musk sent the tweet that led to his tangle with regulators — a cryptic announcement that he had “funding secured” to take Tesla private at $420 per share.

The SEC said he had no such thing, and sued Musk last week for misleading investors.

Under a settlement announced Saturday, Musk agreed to step aside as chairman for three years, and he and Tesla each agreed to pay $20 million fines. Musk neither admitted nor denied wrongdoing under the settlement.

The SEC lawsuit may be behind him, but Tesla still has some serious IOUs coming up. A total of $2.7 billion of Tesla debt is due this year and next, according to Goldman Sachs.

That’s one reason the production and profit targets are so important: Tesla needs the cash to pay down all that debt.

The markets have reflected investors’ worry. Tesla bonds maturing in August 2025 traded at 84.5 cents on the dollar on Friday, close to a record low. And Tesla stock has fallen 31% from its high in the hours after the ill-fated tweet.

The stock may bounce back Monday, now that the uncertainty over Musk’s future is removed. But Wall Street still wants something else — results.

2. Jobs, jobs, jobs: Analysts expect another month of solid growth when the US Labor Department issues its September jobs report on Friday.

More important may be the wage growth figure: Will it hit 3% for the first time since April 2009? If so, will that unnerve investors worried about an overly aggressive Federal Reserve?

3. Changing of the guard at Goldman: Lloyd Blankfein is ending his run as CEO of Goldman Sachs (GS) on Monday. He will be replaced by Goldman president — and part-time DJ — David Solomon.

The investment firm’s stock is down more than 10% since beginning of the year. Solomon will need to deal with lower revenue from Goldman’s trading desk, which collects client fees to buy and sell bonds, commodities and currencies.

4. Earnings watch: It’s a relatively slow week for corporate reports, but among the notable names turning in results are Pepsi (PEP), Stitch Fix, Bon-Ton and Costco.

For Pepsi, this will be the last earnings report under CEO Indra Nooyi, soon to be succeeded by the company’s global operations chief, Ramon Laguarta. The stock could use a caffeine boost: It’s down 7% this year.

5. Rebooting business news: On Thursday, CNNMoney becomes the all-new CNN Business, covering the companies, personalities, and innovations driving business forward.

This new initiative will focus on the single biggest financial story of our generation: how technology is upending every corner of the global economy, forcing businesses, workers, and society itself to adapt rapidly, or be left behind.

6. Coming this week:

Monday — Stitch Fix and Wage Works earnings; David Solomon becomes Goldman Sachs CEO; Eurozone unemployment rate

Tuesday — PepsiCo earnings; US auto sales for September

Wednesday — Lennar earnings; ADP employment report

Thursday — Costco (COST) earnings; CNN Business launches

Friday — US jobs report

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